A.VENKATESH – Assistant Professor, Department of B.Com - ISM & CA
The supremacy of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is in jeopardy. As nations want to lessen their reliance on the dollar, there has been an escalating movement towards de-dollarization in recent years. There have been talks regarding the future of global economic dynamics and the possible ramifications for different stakeholders as a result of the US dollar's dominance in international commerce and finance facing increasing difficulties. The process by which nations seek to lessen their reliance on the US dollar as the predominant global currency is known as de-dollarization and is a current trend.
REASON FOR THE DOWNFALL OF US DOLLAR:
1. The country is at danger from changes in the value of the dollar, shifts in US monetary policy, and any penalties or limitations imposed by the US due to its overreliance on a single currency. Since the US government has been running significant budget deficits, there are worries about inflation and the dollar's value.
2. In recent years, the US has taken part in a number of geopolitical conflicts, such as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Some nations are now less inclined to utilise the dollar as a result of these disagreements, which have raised tensions between the US and other nations.
3. The second-largest economy in the world, China is having a growing impact on international commerce. As a substitute for the dollar, China has been encouraging the usage of the renminbi.
4. Cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, are a brand-new type of digital money that is unregulated by the government. They are now appealing to those searching for a currency other than the dollar as a result.
WHAT THE COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD IS DOING:
By diversifying their currency reserves and conducting trade in alternate currencies, nations aim to lessen their over-reliance on the US dollar and increase their economic autonomy. Countries may enhance their financial goals, improve their financial systems, and adopt economic policies that are in line with their own national interests by reducing their reliance on the US dollar. Additionally, countries that are at war with the US or are subject to geopolitical pressure may try to lessen their exposure to the dollar in order to be less vulnerable to possible economic or diplomatic penalties. The transition to a multipolar global financial system, in which no one currency predominates, may promote financial
inclusion and lessen the vulnerability to currency-related risks.
POSSIBLE DIFFICULTIES IN THE PROCESS OF DE-DOLLARIZATION:
The shift away from the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, known as de-dollarisation, may be a difficult and arduous process. There are a variety of possible dangers and disruptions that need to be carefully evaluated before commencing on a de-dollarisation effort. One of the major obstacles is the possibility for the new currency to lose value or credibility. Financial transactions may be hampered and economic instability may result if the new currency is not perceived as being as liquid or stable as the dollar. So, before switching, it's crucial to foster trust and confidence in the new currency. The fact that many commodities, including oil and gold, are priced and exchanged in dollars presents another difficulty. This implies that moving away from the dollar might make it more difficult to trade
these goods internationally. Additionally, this can restrict finance and direct investment from abroad. When attempting to lessen their reliance on the dollar, nations who have substantial US debt may encounter additional difficulties. Their debt can become more expensive if they abruptly abandon the dollar because their currency might depreciate or exchange rates might alter. Financial instability might result from this, which would make it more challenging to pay back the loan.
Finally, during the transition phase, currency exchange rates may become more volatile due to de-dollarization. The management of exchange rate volatility may be more difficult in nations with less established financial markets or fewer governmental instruments. For the sake of preserving financial stability worldwide and supporting economic progress, these difficulties must be successfully managed. Thus, before implementing a de-dollarisation plan, it is crucial to thoroughly assess all the potential dangers and disruptions.
DE-DOLLARIZATION FROM INDIAN PRESPECTIVE:
De-dollarization may assist developing nations like India by increasing monetary autonomy, decreasing sensitivity to changes in US monetary policy, and enhancing financial stability by diversifying reserves. It also presents difficulties, such as heightened currency rate volatility that may have an impact on commerce, investment, and capital movements. As a result, emerging nations like India should proceed with de-dollarization cautiously and gradually while weighing the advantages and hazards.
DE-DOLLARIZATION IS IT POSSIBLE?
The greatest financial markets in the world are found in the United States, drawing investors from all over the world. A large network effect is produced by these markets' stability and liquidity, which renders the US dollar essential for international financial operations. In order to promote international commerce, central banks have traditionally held substantial amounts of the US dollar as the preeminent global reserve currency. Diversifying reserve assets away from the dollar would be necessary, but doing so entails risks and uncertainties relating to the stability and liquidity of alternative currencies. Additionally, international
financial organisations like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) carry out their activities and offer financial assistance in US dollars, reflecting the dollar's widespread use and the established infrastructure that has been created around it. Any departure from the dollar would need fundamental structural adjustments and agreement among the participating nations. Potential rivals include the Euro, Japanese Yen, and British Pound, although they are all firmly associated with the US politically and economically. Other currencies, like the Chinese Yuan, confront challenges including conversion restrictions and capital controls. There are several obstacles in the way of efforts
to dedollarize through programmes like BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Due to the various economies, politics, and cultures of these nations, it is challenging to come to an agreement on a single currency and monetary policy. Cooperation issues among the participating nations might impede development even more. Potential alternatives include Bitcoin and cryptocurrency-based solutions, however they are currently without the necessary infrastructure.
MY PERCEPTION ABOUT THE DE-DOLLARIZATION THEORY:
Despite its flaws, the US dollar remains a key component of the present global financial system since there isn't a viable replacement at this time. The US economy may be having difficulties, and its dominance may be waning, but it still has a commanding position with respect to the financial markets. The crucial element is the presence of superior alternatives. The globe will probably continue to depend on the US dollar as long as it offers consistency, credibility, and appealing chances in comparison to other choices. The US dollar's dominance may reach its limit, though, if a strong rival currency appears that
offers comparable benefits.